The Alpha’s Top Tips
- GWS Giants (away) to beat the Western Bulldogs ($1.55)
- Essendon Bombers (away) to beat Richmond Tigers ($2.00)
- Brisbane Broncos (away) to beat the Canberra Raiders ($2.10)
The best games for viewing this week look to be Richmond vs Essendon and the Bulldogs vs GWS. In my opinion, they also double up as the best betting games as well.
The Giants are flying at the moment, and doing our back pockets a favour in the process. Their opponents last week in Adelaide should finish top 8 this year, but the boys from Western Sydney were a class above them. Their effort is top notch, they run hard, and now they’re in their fourth season, their execution is starting to match up to (and exceed) AFL standard. The Dogs are also a young team on the up, however their current form doesn’t quite go toe to toe with the Giants. Their new recruit Boyd was subbed out against the Demons and young gun Bontempelli has been below his best in recent weeks. Conversely, Scully is thriving at GWS now their team of young stars have relieved the pressure on him, and Cam McCarthy is playing well beyond his years and consistently bagging sausage rolls each week. Anything can happen in this game, however it would take a huge form reversal from both teams if the Giants were to lose. I can’t see that happening. Giants should get home by a few goals.
The Tigers are finally starting to hit their straps, however I don’t think you can read too much into their win away to Port last week. Yes the Power should be a top 8 side, and yes an away trip to Adelaide Oval is never easy. However I don’t think that win was as good as it may appear on paper. The Power dominated the final third and really should have run away with it if not for low confidence and poor execution. In the third term they smashed the Tigers in possession and forward 50 entries, but at three quarter time only had 1 goal 4 to show for their dominance. A couple of quick goals from the Tigers early in the last quarter and it was game over. Don’t get me wrong, the early intensity from the Tigers was tenacious, and they were scoring goals on a day it was a tough task. I just don’t think the win was as good as it first appears. For that reason, our money will be on the Bombers. They’re coming off a solid win against Brisbane last week in a game that was far less taxing than the low scoring affair in Adelaide. They should be fresh for this and ready to win. Bar their poor performance on ANZAC Day, they’ve barely put a bad shift in this year. Watson is due for a big one following a quiet game last week, and given it’s Fletcher’s 400th game, the Bombers need no further reason to get one up on their old rival. Bombers win in a close one.
Best Bets – Giants win @ $1.55 / Bombers win @ $2.00
Best bet of the week comes in the clash between Brisbane and the Raiders in the capital on Saturday. An interesting side note, it’s the fourth time Brisbane have travelled south to Canberra in four years, and the last time these two sides met at Suncorp was back in 2012. Brisbane’s last visit was a successful one, and there’s nothing to suggest this trip won’t be just as good. Canberra have had mixed fortunes this past month or so. They beat Souths, then smashed the Titans before losing to the Dragons and almost pegging back a 26 point deficit against an understrength Dogs side. They have points in them, there’s no doubting that, but they just might need to sure up their defence if they’re to take care of a Broncos side that’s sitting equal top of the ladder.
Brisbane were gallant in their comeback against the Knights last week. They were getting dominated up the middle in the first half before putting on a show and pulling well clear of a disappointing Newcastle side. This game is bound to be well contested, and there’s every chance we’re in for a try fest, but it seems ludicrous to be offering $2.10 for a side coming second up against another outside the top 8. The obvious explanation is the Broncos players returning from Origin duty. However, they were missing those stars last week and still put in a great performance. There’s no doubt the old brigade of Parker, Thaiday, Hodges and Boyd bring a lot to the table, however it’s their young guns in Hunt, Milford and McCullogh that can really turn the screws and get this team over the line. Broncos are paying overs. If their Origin stars can get a job done, their youngsters will take care of the rest. Broncos by 8 points.
Best Bet – Broncos win @ $2.10
Gamble responsibly, and as always. stay confident, stay strong, stay humble, and stay alpha!