The Swans have been the only team to let us down over this purple patch we’ve been on for two weeks. They started hot favourites and lost in the same week we got home on the Sharks at $2.71. It just goes to show that anything can happen in football, and that goes for any code. Looking forward now though, let’s try and add to that healthy 170% ROI from the last fortnight with some well placed wagers this weekend.
The Alpha’s Top Tips
- Richmond Tigers -33.5 @ $1.91
Adelaide Crows win @ $1.73(See edit below)
- Collingwood Magpies +23.5 @ $1.91
- Parramatta Eels win @ $1.60
Game of the week is Collingwood vs Hawthorn at the G on tonight. I sometime feel a little alone in saying this but the Pies are a genuine top 8 side. Granted they’ve had an easy draw, but you can only beat what’s in front of you and they were just as good as the Dockers last weekend. For mine the top 6 is all but sorted, and Adelaide, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs will fight out the last 2 spots. Back to the Pies though, they’ve won us more dosh than any other side this year and we’re going to back them to push the Hawks all the way this weekend. Roughead’s absence will be key given the obvious mismatch between the Pies defence and Hawthorn’s classy forward line. As such, 23.5 points looks a good enough head start for a genuine Collingwood side who haven’t played a bad game since round 6.
Richmond have this knack of getting up for massive games (e.g. Sydney last week) but then failing to put away lesser teams who they should be beating by a big margin. However, we’re banking they can do it this weekend against a Giants outfit that’s still missing key personnel. Whilst Davis an Patfull are out for GWS they will not be able to contain sides with quality key forwards. Riewoldt and Vickery should be bagging goals here, and I expect Cothin and Martin to run riot. The Tigers will cover the line of -33.5.
Edit (8am on 03.07.2015) – News has broken that Adelaide Crows coach Phil Walsh was found dead in his home this morning at 2am. Our condolences go out to his injured wife and family. We’re not even going to begin thinking about how a team responds after such a tragedy so put a line through the tip below.
Bet of the week is the Crows to beat the Cats at Adelaide Oval on Saturday. The Cats are coming off a by that was preceded by wins against Essendon and Port. Both of those sides were at their lowest point in the season so we can’t read into it too much. Before that they were flogged by West Coast. Adelaide were competitive against the Hawks a fortnight ago before running over the top of the Lions in the fourth quarter last weekend. It’s not easy playing your best footy against the lesser sides so to do that was a massive effort. I expect them to be back to their best this weekend at home, and that should be more than enough to be a Geelong side who won’t make top 8. Crows by 10 points.
Want some legs for your multi’s? The Roo’s are a sure thing. Essendon are working towards a win as well.
Best Bets – Adelaide win @ $1.73 / Collingwood +23.5 @ $1.91
Another bloody bye weekend so we’re left short of options. We’re steering clear til Monday night when the NRL’s most inconsistent clubs in Wests and Parramatta go head to head at ANZ. The Tigers have backed up a massive win against Souths with two dreadful efforts. Off-field shemozzle’s aside, Parramatta have actually been playing some consistent footy of late. Granted, they could write a text-book on how to lose, but they’ve won three of their last six games. Whilst a 50% strike rate might not seem that impressive, those three losses are by an average margin of only 4 points. Further to that, they were against Souths, Brisbane and New Zealand; three top eight sides! The Eels are a dangerous team on their day and are playing far more consistent footy than the Tigers. Parra win by 7 points.
Best Bet – Parramatta win @ $1.60
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